First of all, here, is the initial entry.
Predicted Record: 70-75 wins
Actual Record: 80-81
I actually thought this would be a stallish year for the Nationals waiting for both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper to come up. However, the Nationals had a surprisingly strong lineup. Whenever I was in the Outfield for their At-Bats, I was always confident that I could possibly get a ball hit to me within three hitters. Actually, Jayson Werth was one of the weaker parts of the lineup.
Also, I think part of the reason they improved so much was via the simple improvement on defense. Can anyone remember the years the Nationals were REALLY bad? It was almost hilarious some of the error they would make on defense to lose games. Their Pitching still has to improve in the rotation, but the virtual additon of Stephen Strasburg shouldn’t be that bad.
Another thing, the second most important addition I had for the Nationals last offseason didn’t even play for most of the season. I had Adam LaRoche being the second biggest impact player the Nationals acquired behind Jayson Werth. Of course, the Nationals eventual MVP for the year now plays at 1st Base: Michael Morse. However, if you don’t remember, I went to the Nationals’ last three home games this past season (the links are here, here, and here starting with the last game and going backwards. Also, for newer readers, I usually do take a bunch of pictures with the games I got to, but I lost all of the pictures for those three games. A better example of one of my entries for a game can be found: here.) and Michael Morse was being put in the Outfield. Yes it is definitely not his defensive strong suit, but I think this is a sign that they expect to have him in the Outfield next season.
Anyway, the Nationals, I think we can agree, were a surprising team in 2011 and I did not predict they would do this well.
First off, here, is the initial entry.
Predicted Record: 65-70 wins
Actual Record: 77-85 wins
Ok, so maybe I was a bit too overreactive to the Mets. After all, they did have 79 wins in 2010 and I gave them a B- grade, which meant I saw it as a sucessful offseason. However, I did make my prediction on the notion that the Mets would be unloading both Carlos Beltran AND Jose Reyes. Yes, that Jose Reyes who had the highest WAR among BOTH leagues among this season’s Free-Agent class at somewhere in the 7 range. Also, the Mets played above my expectations in most other fields except pitching.
I really don’t have much of an explanation as to how. Why? As crazy as this may seem, I attended less games at Citi Field (13) this past season than I did the year before (15). It’s crazy, because in 2011 I attended 46 games whereas I attended only (I love being able to say that) 20 games total. The reason being that Citi Field just stresses me out in general. It really wasn’t a fun place for me any more for a variety of reasons. As a result, I tried to avoid it at all costs and go to Nationals Park instead. So, i really wasn’t able to get a good grip on what the Mets were, because if I don’t go to the games, last season I was just too busy between going to games, writing entries, doing community service, etc to do much else at all e.g. watch Baseball TV.
So, I really just fed off the sentiment of the rest of New York in this prediction. Everyone held the Mets as a laughing stock and I made a prediction amidst all of that. Thus, my prediction reflected the panic/mocking and I didn’t use my head as I did with most of the other entries. I think the Mets will be a…Wait, this isn’t the Offseason Recap and Review entry. I guess you’ll just have to wait until then to see what I think of the Mets’ 2012 season.
First off, here, is the entry horribly mangled by the transition to WordPress. It just happens that some pictures in certain entries appear as several in this particular entry appear as they were lost in the transition from Two Apart to WordPress.
Predicted Record: 91-96 wins
Actual Record: 89-73
This was pretty much right on because most of my prediction revolved around the acquisition of Dan Uggla, who was absolutely wretched compared to expectation this season. I mean, yes, he did have a 33 game hitting streak from the beginnings of July to the beginnings of April, but do you realize that despite that he had a .233 average for the season. This just shows how terrible his first half was that he could get at least 1 hit for 33 games straight and still not have an average above .250.
Imagine he actually hit his usual .260-.280. We would have a different World Series champion this year. It wouldn’t necessarily be the Braves, but they were the team the Cardinals beat out to get into the playoffs in the first place. Despite all of this, I still have no idea how the Braves didn’t make the playoffs. After the first game in their penultimate series against the Nationals (which I was at all three games of) the Braves magic number (number of their wins+ Cardinals losses to get into the playoffs) was 2 or 3. The weirder thing: a Nationals fan in the bleachers the second game was telling a Braves fan that nothing would give him more joy than to keep them from the playoffs, which looked like a fantasy at that point.
Anyway, I pretty much nailed the Braves if Dan Uggla would have played up to expectations.
First of all, here, is the link to the initial entry.
Predicted record: 94-99 wins
Actual Record: 102-60
So I was 3 games off. I actually think that was pretty good. The only knock I have on my prediction is that their rotation actually was THAT good. I thought that someone was bound to have an off year and their rotation would be a little less spectacular, but they did not fail to disappoint. Even when a starter was injured, they had a hidden starter in the rotation in Vance Worley.
I will stand by my statement, though, that the Phillies’ lineup was nothing spectacular like the years previous when it was hailed as: “the only American League lineup in the National League”. Other than this, I really have nothing to say about my prediction but that I did underestimate the Phillies even with what I thought were pretty high expectations. I did predict they would be in the playoffs and I apologize. I think I am going to stop predicting the playoffs, because I am from the school of thought that the playoffs are very much luck dictated and the Regular Season is what shows the true best team. I’m not saying that the playoffs are bogus, but there should be no way that the Cardinals should have beaten the Phillies given their respective records. The playoffs do provide great entertainment value (just look at this past season), but it is not the best team that always wins the World Series. The worse team of any given match-up has a reasonable chance of beating the better team no matter the discrepancy.
Anyway, I underestimated them a little, but I did get the Phillies’ prediction mostly right.