You know it’s not a good year for the Mariners offense when even Ichiro is slumping:
Jesus Montero, Hector Noesi, George Sherill, Kevin Millwood, John Jaso, Chris Gimenez, and Aaron Heilman. (Again, I deem a player notable by my personal name recognition of said player. Feel free to correct me if you think you know the players better than I do.)
Michael Pineda, Jose Campos, Willy Mo Peña, Josh Lueke, Adam Kennedy, Milton Bradley, and most likely David Aardsma.
Why?: I don’t know. I personally like the Pineda trade for the Mariners, even though I have heard negative feedback given by people who were Mariner fans at the time of the trade. Let me explain my point of view, and then you can either decide to agree or disagree. Michael Pineda was definitely good in the first half. He made the All-star team with an ERA of 2.74. That was a great pitcher on display. However, he ended up the year with a 3.74 ERA, which means he had a 5.12 ERA in the second half. This just leads to the argument of uncertainty with Pineda. Personally, I think this argument is BS when saying that the Mariners benefited from the trade, because we haven’t seen much of Montero.
Here are two arguments I *do* agree with. First, I think that having Montero around is better than having Pineda around, because the Mariners are stacked in their farm system as far as pitching goes. Pineda is way more replaceable to the Mariners than Montero is. The Mariners were a good pitching team while they were the worst offense in the MLB. Their team ERA was 3.90, or 15th best in the league while their team AVG was .233, or worst in the MLB (Personally, I don’t like AVG, because it’s too subject to luck, so I saw the indication of their terrible offense in their league low 556 runs scored). The second point is that Montero outperformed the league more than Pineda did (both were rookies). Pineda’s ERA was 3.74 compared to the league average of 3.94 or 5% better than the league average. Meanwhile, Montero’s AVG was .328 compared to the league average of .255 or 29% better than the league average.
I really can’t evaluate the other prospects swapped in this deal, because as I mentioned in the first entry of this variety, I really don’t pay much attention to prospects who haven’t tasted “The Show”.
Other than this trade, nothing EXTREMELY notable happened. I guess they essentially brought back “The Brim Reaper” George Sherill to close for them, although they could still re-sign David Aardsma as no one has picked him up as I write this entry.
Predicted Record Range: 65-70 wins I think it could easily be 70-75 wins with prospects coming to fruition, but this is the record range based purely on the exchange of talent taking place over this offseason.
Up Next: Which ever Texas team has most votes by midnight tonight January, 25th, 2012, will be the next entry
Vernon, oh Vernon, where wert thou?
Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Brad Mills, Chris Iannetta, Latroy Hawkins, and Jorge Cantu.
Fernando Rodney, Joel Pineiro, Jeff Mathis, Scott Kazmir, and Tyler Chatwood.
Why?: The Angels did do an A+ job in getting their team better for this year, but I am not a big fan of paying big dollars for players in their older years. Yes, Albert Pujols is worth $25+ million NOW. Actually, he’s probably worth more than that, but he showed signs of regression this year, having one of his worst seasons to date. Will he be worth $25+ million ten years from now? Ten years is almost half of a career for most players. Will he even be a $15 million player at that stage of his career? Well, it doesn’t matter, because the Angels will still be paying him $27.5 million.
I am more okay with C.J. Wilson’s contract, but I still wouldn’t do it myself. I liked him the first season he was a starting pitcher, and was amongst the first people to identify him as an ace as I actually said he was an ace in the first (real) entry I ever wrote on this blog. The main beef I have with it is that he does only have two seasons as a starting pitcher. He has been really good in those two seasons, but I predict that he will pitch less than 200 innings in one of the next two seasons due to injury. Another thing is that I think they over-paid for him, because it was a pitching starved market. I think they should have waited until next year to sign a pitcher. The only benefit I can see from signing a pitcher this year is that it takes away an ace from the Angels
primary only competition in the AL West in the Rangers and it probably led them to overpaying for Yu Darvish
Besides this, they did lose Fernando Rodney from a bullpen that was a far cry from those of the early 2000′s, but it is still pretty solid and the improvement in the rotation more than offsets his loss, because they might not need a stellar bullpen with their starters constantly going 7 innings.
Just something I want to throw in,I do think that Pujols’ impact on the offense is overrated, though. The offense may indeed be a good one, but if it is, it won’t be because of Pujols alone. Lost in all of this hoopla is that Kendrys Morales, the main anchor of the line up in 2010, will be back in 2012. Also, the line up last year wasn’t all that good to begin with. I saw them for three games last year (linked here, here, and here) over “Balhawk Fest” weekend. I think there was no Slugging Percentage over .500 in the line up and no OBP over .400. The two most feared bats in the line up were rookies!
Predicted Record Range: 92-97 wins
P.S. Sorry to the person who voted for the Mariners, but I had already written this entry when I saw your vote. So, to make it up to you, I will vote for the Mariners to give them an extra vote.
Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, Craig Breslow, David DeJesus, Andy LaRoche, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, Ryan Sweeney, and Josh Willigham.
Why?: Let’s clear up a few things right away as most of the people reading this haven’t read one of these entries before, 1) I know nothing about prospects unless they are highly touted 2) my lists of “Notable” additions and subtractions are simply done by my name recognition. Feel free to correct me on any of them if you know more about the given team than I do. 3) Most of what comprises the “grade” in these entries is in the impact it has on the team’s 2012 season. The GM could have done a masterful job in getting back a bunch of talent for an aging star, but unless the young players he traded for project to help the team’s record in 2012, the grade will suffer. Generally, a C grade is the team treading water and keeping their team at the same level, a C+ would be a slight improvement, and a C- would be a slight regression.
Now, the reason I gave the A’s a D- is because Billy Beane essentially crippled them for the 2012 season. Their offense was anemic enough without losing Josh Willigham and David De Jesus among other, and he traded away arguably the two best starting pitchers on a very good rotation in Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez. If that wasn’t enough, he also traded away a very talented closer in Andrew Bailey, who was a big part of this team, because when they did win, it was usually in a save situation due to their lack of offense.
I’m not saying the A’s can’t win in a few years, but the situation looks dim for 2012. Also, as I write this, Hideki Matsui is still unsigned. If he comes back, they will still be in an interesting situation, but if he doesn’t, you can add him to the list of Notable Subtractions.
Predicted Record Range: 62-67 wins
Next team: I don’t know, you tell me. The poll shuts off automatically at 2:37 am, but I might close it off at midnight if their is a team with a majority already selected by then.
First of all, Merry Christmas to all who celebrate it. As I type this, it is already halfway through said holiday her in France. I hope, though, no matter what a anybody believes, that this be a good day for them. Now, here, is the link to the first entry predicting the then Florida Marlins’ 2011 season.
Predicted Record: 75-80 wins
Actual Record: 72-90
So I was a little off on this prediction. Though, I was a LOT closer than I thought when I initially looked at the discrepancy between the two records. That is because, I failed to put Josh Johnson in the Notable Subtractions column. Does anyone remeber the first two months or so of the season? Josh Johnson had about 3 or4 starts it seems that he had a no-hitter for the first 6 innings of a game. He was THE best pitcher in baseball when he got injured, and that is with Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw included. Johson was their bonafide Ace and had I known he would have been down for most of the season, I would have down graded the Marlins about four wins. Case in point, the second to last video on Johnson’s Player Page is entitled, “J.J. is key to Marlins’ success.”
Just a side note, as much as I like Josh Johnson, I don’t think he will get over his injury woes. Last Year, when Stephen Strasburg was coming up, everyone and their mother had their eyes on him. Curt Schilling was no exception. He did a segment with ESPN or MLBN where he looked at both Josh Johnson side-by-side with Stephen Stasburg because he wanted to look at a Pitcher of the same height of 6’5″ (Strasburg is 6’4″ and Johnson is 6’6″, but whatever)
Had Josh Johnson been out from the beginning of the season, I would have adjusted my prediction correctly. So all things considered, I predicted the Marlins’ season pretty well. They were who I thought they were! A team that was above average offensively, but not so spectacular to overcome any lack in pitching. I’m not saying their pitching staff was horrible without Johnson, but they have a lot of slightly above average homegrown Pitchers and some below average mercinaries. All in all, this is a well run organization for the funding it provides its GM with.
This is the picture for the Diamondbacks’ 2010:
Why?: This is the one team where the quality of the stars lost beats the quantity of the additions gained. The losses of Brandon Webb, Adam LaRoche, and Mark Reynolds are big as all three have played major roles in the Diamondbacks organization. Without LaRoche and Reynolds, the big strength of the team, it’s power, is considerably weakened.
I just don’t think that they will be able to win if they cannot score runs like they used to. Even if they do well in the pitching aspect of the game. I like the fact that they are trying to change the culture of the free swingers. Now if only they can get rid of Chris Young.
I do wonder how they will rebuild, though.
Predicted Record Range: 60-65 wins. Well if they won 65 with LaRoche and Reynolds, then they should win a bit less if not more.
Up Next: Nobody. Wohooo. Finally I’m done. Two weeks into the season isn’t that bad, right?
“So Donny, how’d ya think you’ll do in your first year”
How do You think they did?
Why?: Yet another team that lost and gained many players. Except as you can tell by the grade, they gained some more than they lost. They some power behind the plate and in the outfield but unquestionably improved their rotation replaced all the talent in the outfield and then some and stabilized their bullpen.
There is still much instability in what happens with the McCourt divorce case and how that will affect the team. Wow! Just as I wrote that sentence, a news story flashed on SportsCenter saying that MLB has taken over the operations of the Dodgers. This does have a bit of foreshadowing pointing to forced sale of the team. This to me means, the team is one or two years away from financial and emotional stability.
Until there is more news on this situation i have nothing more to report.
Predicted Record Range: 80-85 wins. I actually have little idea because they have talent to win more but as I said the whole McCourt situation is very enigmatic.
Up Next: Arizona Diamndbacks
This time they were just too far behind to get into the playoffs.
Ty Wigginton, Jose Lopez, Matt Lindstrom, Joe Crede, and Willy Taveras.
Octavio Dotel, Jeff Francis, Miguel Olivo, Manny Delcarmen, Yorvit Torrealba, Joe Beimel, Melvin Mora, and Clint Barmes.
Why?: They are another one of those teams that lost a lot of players but managed to replace them talent wise. One example of the many would be that they lost Melvin Mora but replaced him with Joe Crede.
I have no real concerns or things that I see can elevate this team. One thing of interest will be to see how Chris Ianetta plays out as the starting Catcher now that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Rangers and Mr. Kidney Stone Miguel Olivo has left. The other thing of note is seeing how Ubaldo Jimenez does this year. Was the first half the real him or was it the second half.. I wish I would have paid more attention to why he did poorly in the Second half but personally I think if you can get six inches of movement on a 95-98 MPH fastball you will do well in even the MLB.
Predicted Record Range: 83-88 wins. I think that they got off to a bit of a slow start last year and can win an extra few games if they start quicker out of the gates.
Up Next: Los Angeles Dodgers
For every team that makes the playoffs there are 4.33 teams that don’t. The Padres were the first third of a team to not make the playoffs. Anyone remember how dominant they were in the West through the first part of the season and the team the Giants beat in the last game of the season to get into the playoffs:
Aaron Harang, Cameron Maybin, Dustin Mosely, Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, Brad Hawpe, Gregg Zaun, Chad Qualls, and Jorge Cantu.
Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Matt Stairs, Jerry Hairston Jr., Tony Gwynn Jr., Miguel Tejada, Jon Garland, David Eckstein, Scott Hairston, and Cesar Ramos.
Why?: In this case, it is in fact the loss of one man that brought them down a couple of letter grades on his own. Let me put it this way, WITH him they had the second lowest Batting Average of.246 in the league and he hit .298. With him they had the fifth lowest runs per game and he scored 81 runs and drove in 101. The second closest player in both categories was Chase Headley with 77 runs and 58 RBIs.
I don’t know about last year but the year before last he drove in over 33% of the team’s runs. That is a big percentage in Basketball where there are 5 players that can produce points but even more so in Baseball where there are nine different players.
In addition to that they did lose a variety of starters to the offseason. I also think that they will still have their great bullpen but the starters will not do as well with an offense that might even be worse than that of Seattle last year.
Predicted Record Range: 70-75 Wins. All I have to say is that you can’t win if you don’t score runs.
Up Next: Colorado Rockies
Not much better than winning the World Series:
Though like many champions, the players wanted more money.
Why?: Let us just say that they were a few players away from an F. They lost 3 starters from their World Series team and also overpaid for some of the players they kept. The reason they didn’t get an F was, they let the right players go.
Renteria was overpaid and is still deteriorating (which kills me as he is a fellow countryman of mine). Uribe was also a good player to let go because of his absolute lack of patience. He is underrated as a defender but it is good that the Giants are trying to rid themselves of the culture that put them last in the league in OBP in 2009 and in 19th last year.I also like the fact that they kept Aubrey Huff and Cody Ross. Even if they did overpay for them. The biggest thing all these transactions do is, enter in a new era of offense to win more championships with that outstanding staff
The Pitching will continue to improve. That’s right IMPROVE. The front three I don’t see regressing and Jonathan Sanchez can actually improve by just cutting down on balls. Barry Zito may or may not figure it out (he won’t be in the rotation but the pitcher I want to focus on is, Madison Bumgarner. Remember that last year was essentially his rookie year. The only thing I see getting in his way this year is how much he pitched last year with the unexpected playoff run. Unless this affects them, I actually see the Giants Pitching as well as the Phillies this year.
Predicted Record Range: 89-94 wins. Pitching wins championships but I see them not moving up that much because they lost all that offense (for them it’s a lot).
Up Next: San Diego Padres
Lyle Overbay, Scott Olsen, Matt Diaz, Garrett Atkins, Jose Veras, and Joe Biemel.
Joe Martinez, Brandon Moss, Brian Bass, Delwyn Young, Zach Duke, and Chan Ho Park.
Why?: The best way to describe the offseason is, eh. Not fantastic but not devastating. They lost some faces of the past and solid players but also gained solid players. Although unlike other teams, the Pirates gained and lost the talent in different places. They might have lost
some stability in the outfield but also became stronger in the infield.
Right now they are in the seemingly never ending stage of rebuilding. I warn Pirates fans that for this particular organization this stage will never end until they invest some into the ball club. What the Pirates ownership is doing at the moment is cost cutting and making money off of the league’s revenue sharing. This may be a way to beat the system and make a profit but it does not do them well when it comes to winning.
Predicted Record Range: 60-65 wins. Just put in the last part of my last paragraph of “Why?” here. The Pirates will not win until the ownership stops trying to beat the system.
Up Next: San Francisco Giants