First of all, Merry Christmas to all who celebrate it. As I type this, it is already halfway through said holiday her in France. I hope, though, no matter what a anybody believes, that this be a good day for them. Now, here, is the link to the first entry predicting the then Florida Marlins’ 2011 season.
Predicted Record: 75-80 wins
Actual Record: 72-90
So I was a little off on this prediction. Though, I was a LOT closer than I thought when I initially looked at the discrepancy between the two records. That is because, I failed to put Josh Johnson in the Notable Subtractions column. Does anyone remeber the first two months or so of the season? Josh Johnson had about 3 or4 starts it seems that he had a no-hitter for the first 6 innings of a game. He was THE best pitcher in baseball when he got injured, and that is with Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw included. Johson was their bonafide Ace and had I known he would have been down for most of the season, I would have down graded the Marlins about four wins. Case in point, the second to last video on Johnson’s Player Page is entitled, “J.J. is key to Marlins’ success.”
Just a side note, as much as I like Josh Johnson, I don’t think he will get over his injury woes. Last Year, when Stephen Strasburg was coming up, everyone and their mother had their eyes on him. Curt Schilling was no exception. He did a segment with ESPN or MLBN where he looked at both Josh Johnson side-by-side with Stephen Stasburg because he wanted to look at a Pitcher of the same height of 6’5″ (Strasburg is 6’4″ and Johnson is 6’6″, but whatever)
Had Josh Johnson been out from the beginning of the season, I would have adjusted my prediction correctly. So all things considered, I predicted the Marlins’ season pretty well. They were who I thought they were! A team that was above average offensively, but not so spectacular to overcome any lack in pitching. I’m not saying their pitching staff was horrible without Johnson, but they have a lot of slightly above average homegrown Pitchers and some below average mercinaries. All in all, this is a well run organization for the funding it provides its GM with.
The image of the year and perhaps the decade for the Nationals. Though they hope not.
Jayson Werth, Matt Stairs, Rick Ankiel, Chad Gaudin, Adam LaRoche, Jerry Hairston Jr., Tom Gorzelanny, Todd Coffey, and Alex Cora.
Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Miguel Bautista, and Willy Taveras.
Why?: Now I know that the Jayson Werth deal was excessive and I would not have done it. To put it in perspective, they could have gotten Adam Dunn and a fourty million dollar pitcher or Adam Dunn and two twenty million dollar pitchers. I factored this into the grade, which is why the grade is not a B+ instead of a B.
What I saw though, was a team that is MUCH improved on defense (Adam Laroche, Rick Ankiel, and Alex Cora). Remeber that in the last few years this has been a problem. They also *improved* their lineup despite the loss of Dunn’s power bat with the signings of Adam Laroche (25 HRs a year) and Werth (who knows in the National’s line-up). They also got some bullpen and rotational stability with Gorzelanny, Coffey, and Gaudin acquired.
Predicted Record Range: 70-75 wins. Out of the Cellar baby!! I think that this number can actually be higher because of the stability they have now that they are a bit older and will be more consitent instead of many players that should be in AAA botching plays and pitching on hot and cold streaks.
Up Next: Cinncinati Reds
Normally I provide a picture at the beginning of an entry to describe the team’s last season. The Mets are no exception:
Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Boof Bonser, Chin-lung Hu, and Scott Harriston.
Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Pedro Feliciano, Hisanori Takahashi, Sean Green, Henry Blanco, John Maine, and Fernando Tatis.
Why?: Had I done this entry when I planned, I would have given them a C. With the subtractions of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo they actually did not hurt their chances of winning this year by that much. It also set them up for the future rather well not having to worry about the contracts of those two.
The only thing that it could be interpretted negatively as is, as a declaration of defeat by the Mets (that would be Mets fans that say this). Yes, it is a declaration of defeat, but come on, did Mets fans really expect them to get to the playoffs this year (some do).
Maybe this is just my talk radio trained ear overreacting to Mets fans expecting their team to do well. I wish them well for all the Mets fans in New York (Although, a worse team does mean more empty seats) but I just don’t see it this year… at all.
Predicted Record Range: 65-70 wins maybe they go on more extended versions of the tears last year because of injured players coming back but I also see two players in contract years that could act as trade bait. This number is assuming either Calos Beltran or Jose Reyes gets traded mid-season. If not, see this number go up maybe even by double digits.
Up Next: Washington Nationals
To try and hide this entry (as to not get hate mail from Mets fans) quickly I will try and get the Nationals Recap and Preview up ASAP.
For those who know the Marlins, you know that they build up their team every few years to do well and break it apart the next year:
At least they lost to the eventual champions.
I think it’s safe to say the first year of the Roy Halladay Era in Philadelphia went well for the Phillies. The playoffs under their standards but still pretty good.
Cliff Lee, Delwyn Young, Brandon Moss, and Brian Bass.
Jayson Werth, Nate Robertson, Greg Dobbs, Jamie Moyer, and Chad Durbin.
Why?: They got Cliff Lee and this might have varying responses. Some may say higher than an A some may say lower. The reason I gave the Phillies an A is because Lee was the only difference maker they signed but that one player caused a HUGE spike in Phillie mentions and stock sale.
Did they gain enough in net player Werth (heh, how’d that get in there?) to deserve an A? No. Did they also go overboard the set budget and break their own rule about signing pitchers? Yes. However, the whole Lee situation has done them infinite wonders as far as publicity is concerned and therefore ticket sales (which is why I won’t go to Philadelphia that much this year). So, I did factor in what it did for them as a business as well as what it did for them as a team.
I also learned to never underestimate a Young, as demonstrated by both Dimitri and Delmon (did these people have names not in D?). So, the signing of young Delwyn did not hurt my grade.
Not much else happened besides the Cliff Lee signing but as those of you reading since December know and as those of you who haven’t can see here, I thought highly of how this signing was set up in the previous years.
Predicted Record Range: 94-99 This may seem a bit low considering how much I have lauded them in this entry but their line-up has pacified considerably with the loss of Utley and worth(so that’s where it went). Do I think that they will win the World Series if/when Utley comes back full force? Yes, but until then they will struggle in streaks to put runs up. I actually have the NL East being a race if not the Braves winning it.